Policy Implications of Escalating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Malawi Amidst Rising Indian Ocean Temperatures

First release: September 16, 2024

The threat of extreme tropical weather impacting Malawi is rising. In over 130 years of recorded history up to 1980, only a single storm made landfall on the coast of Mozambique with winds high enough to be categorized as a cyclone. From 1980 to 2001 there were seven, one of which was stronger than a category 1. From 2002 to 2023 there were nine, including six that were stronger than category 1. Stronger storms have begun surviving long enough to impact Malawi. We use United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data to investigate whether recent extreme weather events is an unfortunate coincidence or part of a trend that can be expected to continue. We see water surface temperatures rising in the parts of the Indian Ocean where storms that threaten the southeastern coast of Africa are formed. Warmer water causes stronger storms, as evidenced by rising average sustained wind speeds. Stronger storms, in turn, are more likely to survive over land long enough to threaten Malawi, implying more extreme tropical weather can be expected in the future. In the near-term policymakers and donors could respond by supporting disaster preparedness for effective response, developing comprehensive multi-sectoral and multi-hazard risk maps and investment plans. In the longer-term, Malawi could invest in disaster risk reduction and resilience building through a range of investments that include establishing water drainage, high-efficiency irrigation systems, catchment and road infrastructure, and promoting soil health to improve retention.